Did Peter Turchin predict 2020?
Peter Turchin, along with Jack Goldstone, claims in an article in Noema (https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties/) that he (they, I guess) predicted the ongoing turbulence of 2020. I believe Turchin has made this claim before, but it's a somewhat annoying claim for a pretty obvious reason: Turchin didn't, as far as I know, predict the pandemic that either caused or significantly contributed to most of the unrest of 2020. So he didn't really predict what's happening. Maybe it all would have happened anyway, but we don't know. He seems a lot like someone gloating about predicting a horse would a lose a race.. after the horse gets shot by a sniper in the bleachers. We all know that's not why he predicted the horse would lose. I have some doubts about Turchin's general theory that there are consistent social/political cycles in history that civilizations follow, and his 2020 victory lap ironically underscores my some of my issues with his th